Market Size: The Numbers
Provider Counts (2024)
- Registered providers: ~21,400
- Unregistered providers: ~245,800
- Total active providers: ~267,200
This means 92% of providers serving NDIS participants are unregistered.
Participant Access
- Self-managed participants: ~30%
- Plan-managed participants: ~25%
- NDIA-managed participants: ~45%
Unregistered providers can serve approximately 55% of participants.
Why So Many Unregistered Providers?
Lower Barriers
- No application fees
- No audit costs
- Faster market entry
- Less compliance overhead
Service Types
Many services don't require registration:
- Support work
- Community access
- Domestic assistance
- Transport
- Some allied health
Market Demand
- Participants want choice
- Plan managers enable access
- Self-managers prefer flexibility
Market Trends
Growing Segments
- Allied health (especially telehealth)
- Community participation
- Support work
- Transport assistance
Declining Opportunities
- Support coordination (registration required July 2025)
- Services trending toward registration requirements
Future Outlook
Short Term (2025)
- Support coordination exits unregistered market
- Other services continue as current
- Growing pressure toward registration
Medium Term (2026+)
- Risk-proportionate registration likely
- More services may require enrolment
- Unregistered market shrinks but remains significant
Strategic Positioning
- Consider registration as investment
- Build compliance systems now
- Monitor regulatory changes closely
